Irina Tsurina, Head of Analytical Department of PRopaganda

– After closure of Ignalina NPP Lithuania will face a serious energy crisis

Poland seems to have given up the idea to take part in the construction of new Ignalina NPP. The capacity of Ignalina-2 does not meet Poland’s existing and future energy demand. Instead, Poland is considering the possibility of building an own NPP with Wyszków named as one of the potential construction sites. The final choice is expected to be made by the end of 2009. Polska newspaper, referring to PAA (Państwowa Agencja Atomistyki, National Atomic Energy Agency), has published a map featuring Wyszków as one of the potential sites for the future Polish NPP. Among the other sites are Malkinia and Chotcza (eastern Poland), Kopan (northern Poland) and Klempicz and Nowe Miasto (western Poland).

The system of unified energy policy in Europe appears to be ineffective even on the level of one region. The construction of a new Ignalina NPP in Lithuania was expected to become an example of energy cooperation as this plant would meet the demand of all Baltic states, including Poland. However, this pool seems to be breaking down in our very eyes.    

The European Union insists that Ignalina NPP must be shut down because it operates Chernobyl-type (RBMK) reactor. Instead, the Europeans have promised joint construction of a new plant. Today, Ignalina NPP generates 70% of Lithuania’s energy. Even though none of the parties to Ignalina-2 project – Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland – has openly refused to take part in it, two of them have already said that they are planning to build their own NPPs. Poland has proclaimed nuclear energy its priority and is going to build two plants. For the moment, the Polish authorities are considering eight potential construction sites. Estonia also has such plans. It seems that Tallinn no longer relies on Ignalina-2 as this plant can be launched no earlier than 2016. 

This means that Lithuania may be left to face this problem alone. Now, in the face of the global crisis, the Baltic states can hardly build several NPPs at one and the same time. So, Poland and Estonia are facing a dilemma: either to build own NPPs or to construct a common regional energy system. It seems that they have opted for the former scenario: none of them is saying anything about the future of Ignalina-2.

On the other hand, the active efforts of the Baltic states to develop nuclear energy proves that energy consumption in the region will grow even despite economic decline. If our Baltic NPP in Kaliningard region is built quickly, its electricity will become quite a marketable product and this will enhance Russia’s energy influence in the region.