Wojciech Paczynski, expert on economics at the CASE — Center for Social and Economic Research, Poland

— Nuclear fuel allows changing electricity production structure so that importance of gas decreases and importance of nuclear energy increases

Last week Estonia said that it was joining IRIS, a project of smaller-scale pressurized water reactor that is presently being implemented in the United States, and that it might build its first nuclear power plant in as early as 10 years. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Estonia Urmas Paet said that they would adopt a specific decision as soon as they saw what Lithuania decided on Ignalina NPP-2. Paet said that the construction of own NPP would require big investments and highly qualified personnel. So, Estonia would prefer the construction of a new Ignalina. Estonia will make its choice after the meeting of the heads of governments and energy officials of the Baltic states and in Mar 2009.

Energy security is commonly understood as lower dependence on imports of energy commodities. I’m not saying that this is correct understanding, but this is how general public sees it. If they find the main goal to decrease imports of gas, the easy solution is to find another fuel that will allow production of electricity. It is nuclear, which has another major advantage in avoiding CO2 emissions – a very important thing for the EU, — that’s why this is the choice of many governments. It allows changing electricity production structure so that importance of gas decreases and importance of nuclear energy increases.

I think that the Baltic states [in case of energy deficit after the closure of Ignalina NPP in 2009, December] may try to develop electricity trade with the EU (grid connections are planned) in order to import electricity during the period of this shortage after the Ignalina NPP shutdown. Another – and in the short term easier source of imports may be Belarus and Russia, given the already existing interlinkages.

As for the possibility that the Baltic NPP in Kaliningrad region may be one of electricity sources for the neighboring states in case of energy deficit, I guess the following: the EU as a whole is close to seeing a deficit of electricity production. Russia and Ukraine are the countries which possess potential in electricity production and supply so there is a possibility that the EU will be able to import more electricity from Russia. For these interconnections technical infrastructure is needed. I mean that in a short and mid-term this will be a good solution, beneficial for both parts.