Yana Zausayeva, political observer of POLITCOM.RU

– Nuclear energy is becoming one of the key elements of energy security

The IAEA has released the latest update of its annual projections for the future of nuclear power, and both its low and high projections for 2030 are higher than they were last year. The low projection foresees an installed global nuclear power capacity of about 510 gigawatts (GW(e)) in 2030, a 40% increase over the 370 GW(e) currently installed in 2009. The high projection foresees 810 GW(e), well more than a doubling. These revised projections for 2030 are 8% higher than last year?s projections.

The upward shift in the projections is greatest for the Far East, a region that includes China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. Modest downward shifts in the projections were made for North America and for Southeast Asia and the Pacific. For all other regions there is a generally modest upward shift. The one exception is a higher upward shift in the high projection for the Middle East and South Asia, which includes India and Pakistan. There the high projection for 2030 shifted upward by 15 GW(e).

All studies still project persistent energy demand growth in the medium and long term.

In the last years the world has been experiencing “nuclear renaissance.” Many countries are resuming their old nuclear programs or starting new ones. There are several reasons for such behavior. First of all, they need to diversify their energy sources and enhance their energy independence. In this light, many national governments have turned their faces towards nuclear energy as a source of the safest and cheapest power and an instrument for reducing their dependence on oil and gas supplies.

Hence, we can say that nuclear energy that was non grata for quite a long time after Chernobyl (1986) and Three Mile Island (United States, 1979) is triumphantly coming back onto the international political-economic stage – today nuclear energy is becoming one of the key elements of energy security. The global financial crisis has not stopped this tendency.

The IAEA’s annual projections have confirmed this fact: both low and high projections for increase in installed nuclear global power capacity by 2030 are higher than they were a year before.

If continued this tendency will cause changes in the configuration of the global economic and political space: the structure of the global energy consumption will transform (not in favor of oil and gas) as will the energy supply market and the balance of players on it. These changes can already be observed. The projections say that the upward shift in the projections is greatest for India and China as both countries are actively developing their nuclear industries.

In the United States nuclear power companies are not very optimistic. One of the biggest US power companies, Exelon, has delayed its new NPP construction projects because of unstable economy and limited federal assignations. AemerenUE has suspended its plans to build a nuclear reactor in the state of Missouri. So, the IAEA’s this year’s projections for the United States are lower than before.

It should be noted that a big part of the shares of Westinghouse, initially American company, one of the world’s nuclear giants, belongs to Kazakhstan and Japan, a country with high projections.

The “growth pole” in the nuclear sector appears to be shifting eastward and China with its grandiose nuclear program and Kazakhstan with its high uranium mining activity can form quite a good team in this field. In Nov 2007 Kazatomprom made a number of contracts with China Guandong Nuclear Power Company (CGNPC) and China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC). The parties agreed to jointly develop uranium deposits in the territory of Kazakhstan, to supply it for the needs of the Chinese nuclear industry, to produce nuclear fuel for Chinese nuclear power plants and to build NPPs in China. Kazatomprom may become the key supplier of nuclear fuel for CGNPC (the operator of over than half of all Chinese nuclear reactors). China has not been discouraged by the global crisis. On the contrary, declining economy is urging the Chinese authorities to spend more money on big infrastructure projects so as to create more jobs.

Thus, the IAEA’s projections show that the configuration of the world’s key nuclear actors is shifting to the east.