Nikolay Podlevsky, head of Analytical Department of Zerich Capital Management IC

– Despite continuing economic crisis, plans to enlarge nuclear power capacities remain indisputable

In 2009 uranium production in the world will grow by 11.5% — from 43,600 tons to almost 48,700 tons, Deputy Director General of Atomredmetzoloto OJSC (ARMZ) Alexander Boytsov said during MINEZ-09 conference. This forecast is based on ARMZ’s analysts and projections by the World Nuclear Association. Kazakhstan is showing the most dynamic growth in this field. However, despite its growth, uranium production is still unable to meet the global demand (58,000 tons a year) with the current demand being covered by stored and re-processed uranium. The key risks for the biggest uranium projects are financial, technological and political problems. ARMZ reports that by 2020 the uranium industry will be able to fully meet the needs of the nuclear sector but after 2025 it may run short of resources and face stagnation.

Despite the continuing economic crisis, the plans to enlarge nuclear power capacities remain indisputable due to the long term of NPP construction projects and conservative approach to the planned share of NPPs in the total energy production in the coming decade. The other important reason for the growing attention to nuclear energy is the climbing oil and gas prices. 

Active construction of new nuclear reactors requires enlargement of uranium production. We have all capacities for doing this. First, we can enlarge uranium output at existing deposits. Second, we should intensify our prospecting activities and to get ready for developing reserve deposits.

We should also search for possibilities to take part in uranium mining projects in foreign countries, particularly, Central Asia (Kazakhstan) and Mongolia.

Experts say that by 2030 the global demand for uranium will grow by 59% to 104,000 tons. According to the moderate scenario, the demand will grow to 98,800 tons. WNA says that in 20 years the number of operating nuclear reactors will grow by 88%. The leaders will be China and India. The global nuclear power capacities will grow by 119%. In Russia the capacities will grow by 2.5 times. For the moment, there are 436 nuclear reactors in the world – they generate 15% of total energy. The leaders are the United States, France, Japan and Russia. 50 reactors are under construction for the moment: 16 in China, 9 in Russia, 6 in India and 5 in South Korea.